As many of us continue to abide by the ‘stay-at-home’ instruction mandated by the Movement Control Order, we are all asking ourselves as to when Malaysia will see an end to the Covid-19 pandemic. Well, that can apparently happen much sooner than many of us think, according to Astro Awani!
Based upon a recent study that was conducted by the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), it is predicted with the data that they have obtained, that the bulk of the Covid-19 pandemic would ‘end’ by as early as 6th May 2020! Now, this isn’t some random number that they plucked out of thin air.
The study, which relies upon susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) predictive modelling, factors in a number of different things including ‘adaptive and countering behaviours of agents including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (locking down cities) as well as the natural limitations of the ecosystem’.
Throughout their study, SUTD has conducted predictive modelling with over 28 different countries, including Malaysia.
The SIR model is then plotted into a graph using a graphing calculator, and shows the likelihood that Malaysia will detect up to 97% of the total expected cases of Covid-19 domestically by 6th May, 2020, signalling the beginning of the end for the pandemic locally.
The model also predicts that the world will see 97% cases ending around May 29, while it will fully be rid of the virus by 100% in December 8.
It is worth noting that the SIR predictive model has been used to make predictions as to the effects of a number of different pandemics throughout history, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the HIV AIDS outbreak. But remember, this still remains as only a prediction, so it is really up for debate as to whether this will come true or not. For the time being, keep staying at home and do your part in keeping the number of infections low, and wait upon further instruction from the Ministry of Health.
What do you guys think of this development?
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SOURCES:
Umavathi Ramayah (2020), COVID-19 di Malaysia dijangka beransur pulih awal Mei - Kajian SUTD. Retrieved from: http://www.astroawani.com/berita-malaysia/covid-19-di-malaysia-dijangka-beransur-pulih-awal-mei-kajian-sutd-240232
Chee Kin (2020), Covid-19 Pandemic In Malaysia Predicted To End By EARLY MAY According To New University Study. Retrieved from: https://worldofbuzz.com/covid-19-pandemic-in-malaysia-predicted-to-end-by-early-may-according-to-new-university-study/
SUTD (2020), When Will COVID-19 End? Data-Driven Prediction – SUTD? Retrieved from: https://people.sutd.edu.sg/jianxi_luo/public_html/COVID19PredictionPaper20200426.pdf